The Ukraine Ceasefire: Castles In The Air Fall – OpEd

Trump appears to be growing increasingly impatient with his lack of progress in a war that he promised to end in 24 hours, expressing frustration with Russian and Ukrainian leaders as he struggles to forge a truce. President Trump revealed his frustration with President Putin, saying he was “Pissed Off” and threatening to impose tariffs on Russian oil exports. Trump’s comment was a noticeable shift in tone from previously expressed admiration for Putin. Moscow has described the latest US peace proposals as unacceptable, highlighting the limited progress President Trump has made on his promise to end the war. 

President Putin has repeatedly referred to what he claimed were the “Root Causes” of the conflict to justify his hardline position on any prospective deal to end the war in Ukraine. In recent weeks the Russian president has also been openly pushing for regime change in Ukraine, claiming that Zelensky lacks the legitimacy to sign a peace deal and suggesting that Ukraine needs external governance. Putin’s investment envoy, Mr Dmitrievis the highest-ranking Russian official to visit the US since the invasion in February 2022. He was invited by President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. After arrival, the envoy said that “unnamed forces are “Distorting Russia’s position, trying to disrupt any steps towards dialogue.”

The talks primarily focused on efforts to de-escalate the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and explore avenues for economic cooperation between the two nations. Dmitriev emphasized the importance of US-Russia dialogue and highlighted potential areas of collaboration, such as investment, rare earth metals, Arctic cooperation, and space exploration. He also noted American businesses’ interest in re-entering the Russian market and advocated for the lifting of sanctions imposed since the onset of the war. ​ Despite these discussions, Dmitry stated that there are currently no plans for a phone conversation between President Putin and US President Trump and acknowledging the complexity of the issue. 

The Mockery of the Ukraine Ceasefire

The mockery of the Ukraine ceasefire by both sides highlights the broader failure of diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the conflict. Ceasefires are meant to provide humanitarian relief, facilitate negotiations, and prevent further loss of life, but in this war, both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of violating truces almost as soon as they are announced. Neither side truly believes the other will uphold a ceasefire, leading to preemptive strikes and continued hostilities. The biggest losers in these broken ceasefires are civilians who remain trapped in dangerous areas without aid. Ultimately this so-called ceasefires mean little to both parties as both see this as a tactical tool rather than genuine steps toward peace. There are several reasons why a Ceasefire in Ukraine is seen to be “Half-Hearted” and “Not Effective”:

• Neither Russia nor Ukraine may be willing to agree to a full ceasefire unless it benefits their long-term position. A limited or temporary truce could be more about regrouping than genuine peace efforts.
• Both sides (and their allies) have political interests that may prevent a full commitment to a ceasefire. EU continue to back Ukraine with military aid, seeing negotiations now as premature. NATO allies argue that a ceasefire without a Russian withdrawal would reward aggression and encourage future invasions.
• Russia may want to freeze the conflict on its terms, while Ukraine might not agree to a deal that legitimizes territorial losses. President Zelensky faces public and political pressure not to negotiate with Russia unless there are real guarantees.
• President Trump is believed to push for a ceasefire that may favour Russia, while NATO, Ukraine and its allies want Ukraine to continue fighting and not looking for an early end to war which favours Russia. Putin might only agree to a ceasefire that solidifies its current territorial gains. This creates a deadlock where neither side is fully committed, and the fight continues without any ceasefire pause. 

Ukrainian Forces – Will to be Offensive

Ukrainian forces are believed to have initiated an offensive into Russia’s Belgorod region two days ago. This action aims to divert Russian military resources from other frontlines and create a buffer zone to protect Ukrainian territories from cross-border attacks. The strategy mirrors previous incursions into Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops sought to leverage territorial gains in negotiations and reduce Russian pressure on Ukrainian positions. Additionally, these operations serve to demonstrate Ukraine’s offensive capabilities and resilience amid ongoing ceasefire discussions. Other than loosing men and equipment by both sides Ukrainian forces failed to gain anything other than initial surprise and show their continued will to fight and still attack into Russian territory.

Trump’s Efforts to Broker a Ceasefire

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours” if re-elected but securing a peace deal is far more complicated than his rhetoric. Peace deals usually require painstaking negotiations. The Minsk Agreements failed, and past US attempts to broker peace deals in the Middle East show how difficult the process is. 

Trump’s claim to end the war “quickly” is unrealistic because it ignores the entrenched positions of both sides, the geopolitical stakes, and the complexities of war negotiations. Efforts to broker a ceasefire in the three-year-old Ukraine conflict have encountered significant obstacles, making an agreement in the near future unlikely. President Trump’s attempts to expedite a peace deal have faced resistance from both Russian and Ukrainian leadership.​ A quick peace deal likely means Ukraine ceding land, which is politically unfeasible.

Despite these tensions, President Trump has signaled a willingness to engage directly with President Putin to discuss a possible peace agreement. He has expressed intentions to meet with Putin soon, emphasizing the importance of ending the conflict that has resulted in significant casualties. 

US President Trump’s “America First” and “Make America Great” again is at play. Trump has a new vision for America’s economy indirectly to impact global politics and economy. Trump will befriend Putin to end the Ukraine war and loosen Putin’s Beer Hug of President Xi to counter China and send a strong Geopolitical signal to China to deter from any moves against Taiwan and the US interests