Caspian Sea’s Declining Water Level Limits Size Of Ships Its Ports Can Handle – OpEd

The decline in the water level of the Caspian Sea, the result of global warming and decreasing flows of rivers in Russia and elsewhere because of increased human use, mean that Caspian ports can no longer handle the size of ships they did as recently as a year ago.

In the short term, the littoral states are likely to shift cargo to smaller vessels and to engage in dredging actions, although these countries, and the Russian Federation in the first instance, don’t have sufficient dredging vessels to handle the job and will be forced to look to others.

Russia has already begun conversations with China and Iran about providing such vessels to help it keep Russia’s two major ports on the Caspian operational; and other littoral states are likely to follow (casp-geo.ru/snizhenie-urovnya-kaspiya-zatrudnyaet-priem-sudov-v-portah/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/06/falling-water-levels-forcing-moscow-to.html).

Unless dredging takes place soon, both those who hope to use the Caspian as a north-south or east-west route will be forced to scale down their operations or seek to use more expensive land routes around it, either of which will force them to scale back their plans for this waterway. 

And it will also continue to affect the balance in naval forces between Russia, whose Caspian Flotilla is based on larger ships, and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, whose naval forces are based on smaller ships and won’t be as immediately affected.