Chinese Soldiers In Ukraine, New German Aid Package – Analysis
By Can Kasapoğlu
1. Chinese Citizens Fighting in Ukraine
Last week President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on X that Ukrainian forces had captured Chinese citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
Based on interrogations of two detained Chinese nationals, Ukrainian officials suspect that up to 150 Chinese citizens are fighting alongside Russian units in Ukraine. Officials from the United States believe these fighters to be mercenaries. But Beijing has also sent People’s Liberation Army officers to study the war from behind Russia’s lines.
So far, China’s most important material support to the Kremlin has been its provision of machine tools to help Russia manufacture arms. Whether Beijing will follow North Korea’s lead and send additional military personnel to join the fight remains to be seen.
2. Germany’s New Military Assistance Package
The German Ministry of Defense announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, agreeing to supply Kyiv with over €11 billion in assistance. The package includes IRIS air defense systems, Patriot interceptors, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), ground surveillance radars, artillery, land warfare assets, and up to 130,000 rounds of 155mm-class ammunition.
Previous editions of this report have highlighted how Russia has increased the pace of its aerial attacks in recent weeks. Germany’s pledge of assistance therefore comes at a time of great need for Ukraine.
The aid package is no surprise to analysts monitoring growing defense ties between Berlin and Kyiv. In early March Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed a memorandum of understanding with Diehl Defense, the German arms manufacturer that produces the missiles used in the IRIS air defense system.
IRIS-T-baseline surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) are playing an increasingly prominent role in defending Ukraine. This German system evolved from IRIS-T air-to-air missiles and was first spotted in Ukraine in 2023. It is effective against loitering munitions and cruise missiles, including assets with low radar signatures. The more prominent version, the IRIS-T SLS, provides short-to-medium-range air defense coverage, while the mid-range variant, the IRIS-T SLM, boasts a larger operational range of around 25 miles.
Ukrainian air defense crews praise the IRIS system and emphasize its reliability. Nonetheless, Ukraine will likely continue to rely on American Patriot systems against Russia’s ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. As a result, Germany will not be able to unilaterally supply Ukraine with the munitions it needs to defend its airspace.
A joint venture between Raytheon and MBDA Deutschland plans to start producing a variant of the Patriot interceptor in 2026. But until then, Berlin will rely on American manufacturers to replenish its Patriot supplies. Meanwhile, as Russian air strikes continue to pound Ukraine, other European nations have also placed orders for more Patriot batteries and interceptors.
3. Battlefield Assessment
The Russian military maintained an offensive footing in Ukraine this week. Russian forces engaged in heightened artillery activity in the Sumy region of Ukraine, while Kupiansk and Lyman also saw heavy combat.
Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Toretsk, which have long been flashpoints, also faced renewed Russian tactical pressure. Chasiv Yar, a town in Ukraine that by now has been reduced largely to rubble, also witnessed clashes.
To counter manpower shortages, the Ukrainian General Staff continued to promote its Contract 18–24 volunteer recruitment program. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces also carried out drone attacks on Russian air defenses.
Defense intelligence indicators suggest that the Russian military is likely preparing for a reloaded large-scale push into Ukrainian lines in the coming weeks. The most plausible focus of such an offensive would be eastern Ukraine, the conquest of which was a chief objective of Russia’s initial invasion campaign. Russian efforts to establish footholds around the Oskil River near Kharkiv suggest that the Kremlin’s forces may target that city soon.
The Russian military has now amassed around 623,000 servicemen in Ukraine and generated hundreds of thousands of immediately available reserves to reinforce the front lines.
- About the author: Can Kasapoğlu is a Hudson Institute Senior Fellow
- Source: This article was published by the Hudson Institute
