New Strategic Friendshoring Of Singapore Towards Vietnam – Analysis
Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s visit to Vietnam at the end of March reflects Singapore’s intent to reciprocate H.E. To Lam’s visit in early March and Lawrence’s intent to send the message that Singapore remains committed to maintaining the good momentum of ties in the new status as a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Vietnam remains important for Singapore in a multifaceted way and for many reasons.
In the field of food and energy security, Singapore needs Vietnam’s new leadership and the renewed focus on enhancing its own food and energy transition.Singapore needs a new dependence for its food security apart from traditional dependence on Malaysia, and Vietnam is seen as a safer bet in the long term for both the resilience of its food security preservation and the overall climate of ties where the top leadership of Vietnam is seen to be more trusted in terms of having a mutual need and dependence on Singapore for the economic and security assurances of Vietnam.
Singapore will want to show to Vietnam that in the long term regional calculations, Vietnam has more similarities and vulnerabilities to share, as both nations face the same dilemma of navigating through the power complexities between the US and China, and that Vietnam is needed as a new geographical base and advantage for Singapore for various reasons.
First, with the new economic and trade volatility, Singaporean firms will need more expansion of geographical locations and bases for trade and manufacturing localities, and Vietnam provide the returns in terms of infrastructure, government policy and support, and local talents.
In the field of energy and supply chain, Singapore acknowledges the importance of Vietnam in now emerging as the top economic powerhouse for future potential economic and trade advancement, and also complementing Singapore’s finance hub status. Singapore is well aware that Vietnam’s own advantage in serving as the alternative for the firms leaving China because of the trade restrictions and the restrictions by the US, will be the key in Vietnam leading the region in terms of the new economic hub in key areas.
These include digital economy, green energy and green and blue economy and in critical minerals, all of which are important to Singapore.
In areas of defence and security, Singapore has more flexibilities in pivoting to each nation, but has now been seen to be more inclined towards the security assurances of the US. Hosting bases for Washington, Singapore’s top concerns were its own survival in security, economic and domestic energy and resources’ needs, and Vietnam is seen to be providing the safety net for economic and domestic energy and resources’ needs.
For security, Singapore hopes for Vietnam to continue its Four No’s and the bamboo approach in complementing Singapore’s own strategic hedging, which are hoped to both provide the stabilising factor needed to deflect the risks of being seen as too critical or harsh on one power in the Sino-US power rivalry.
With Trump now setting sights on the region in terms of tariffs and trade fairness, Vietnam is seen as one of the main targets for trade recorrection. Singapore wants to be seen as the saviour and the balancer in this regard, where it can soften the potential negative impact of Trump’s actions by serving as the needed trade hub and base for Vietnam.
Singapore also serves as the extended barrier and deterrent effect where due to limitations of its Four No’s, Vietnam’s new upgraded ties with Singapore will provide it with new and deeper interdependence in terms of economic, trade and people to people relations which will translate into deeper security cooperation and trust building.
Geographically, Singapore is important for Vietnam’s naval and power projection and security of trade and waterways, as it is now increasingly being surrounded by Chinese new maritime presence in Funan Techo, in Kra bridge and the new base in Ream. Singapore is seen as crucial in being partners for ensuring supply chain and maritime security and navigation, and in warding off potential Chinese interruptions, in forming as regional bedrock of trusted security partners both in peace time and in times of conflict.
Vietnam’s land routes are limited, and will have to rely on the Malacca Strait for most of the trade and navigation interests, and Singapore forms as one of the most direct interlinked players in ensuring future security of the flow of resources and trade.
While Vietnam realises that Singapore is also deeply interdependent on China for economic and trade interests, it is now scrambling for new friendhshoring efforts to diversify their security and trade options, and regional solidarity in security, rule of law, norms and regional stability will be the main unifying factors.
For this to happen, trust and long-term confidence in each other’s responses will be crucial. This is reflected in the commitment to non-interference in internal affairs. The role played to ensure long-term peace and stability can only be achieved with internal regime stability, which will ensure continuous status quo of foreign policies.
Singapore is still the largest ASEAN investor in Vietnam, and it is for this reason that Lawrence intents to show the deep intent to ensure that Vietnam still remains the primary destination for Singapore’s own long term economic interests and resources.
Vietnam’s new quest for this new technological and economic transition will require the needed reliable equal partner and Singapore has both the expertise, financial resources and the precedence of similar transition trajectories to offer.
The primary areas of focus are still energy and food security for Singapore, and people to people ties and growing areas including tourism, education, digitalisation, AI and infrastructure serve as the supporting pillars.
All these are geared for the high politics of new economic sectors, high end industralisation and manufacturing and digital transition, in which Vietnam is heavily moving towards now. Singapore is sensing this new opening to further serve as the win win situation for both countries, where Singapore can reap the long term economic and resources benefits. At the same time, Vietnam can have the partner for new finance, services and digital transition experience and expertise.
In the defence arena, each will need the other’s strength in naval capacity, extended cyber, and new warfare deterrence and capabilities.
Both sides will want to leverage on one another’s strengths, especially in the new dynamics of geopolitical, trade, economic, and security shifts and turmoil.
