When Former Partners Become Rivals: What Is Happening Between Kyiv And Tbilisi? – OpEd
The famous saying by Lord Palmerston,” We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow,” perhaps the the best description of the current relations between Georgia and Ukraine. Nowadays, these relations survive their sharpest downturn for the last period. It appears that this trend will be kept in the foreseeable future, as many issues related to the war in Ukraine, which fueled estrangement between Kyiv and Tbilisi remain unchanged.
Nowadays, the West’s political establishment has been somewhat oblivious to the fact that Ukraine and Georgia considered in one package as potential members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in its milestone Bucharest declaration.
Georgia’s extremely cautious attitude to the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia. However, with its heavy record of military conflicts with Russia and vulnerable security stance, Georgia is often forced to resort to situational adjustments of its domestic and foreign policy. The decision of the Georgian authorities not to impose full-scale sanctions against Russia, not to provide any military assistance to Ukraine, despite urgent requests from Kiev and western countries, was dictated mainly by avoiding any conflict with Russia, which according to GD would have a devastating impact on Georgia. Besides, the Georgian leadership’s attitude to the conflict in Ukraine was probably predetermined by the lack of belief in the West’s ability to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia. For this, Georgia has been frequently criticized by Ukraine and the Western countries, especially those whom Georgia’s ruling party Georgian Dream (GD) labels as a “Global War Party,” allegedly striving to involve Georgia in the war.
What is observed nowadays in the Georgian-Ukrainian inter-state relations is the exchange of mutual stings in the various fields. In April, government of GD reduced the visa-free stay duration for Ukrainian refuges in Georgia from three years to one. What is noteworthy, last year, the GD government extended the visa-free stay from two to three years to show solidarity with Ukraine. The decision to shorten a visa-free term might have been Tbilisi’s response to the latest unfriendly actions of the Ukrainian authorities against Georgia and GD. The Ukrainian government imposed sanctions on GD’s top officials, including GD founder and now its honorary chair Bidzina Ivanishvili. The Ukrainian delegation and the Georgian opposition jointly prepared an extremely critical to Georgia resolution in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), which slammed GD for backsliding in democratic development and demanded new parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, it is quite possible that the decision of the Georgian authorities to shorten visa-free regime for the Ukrainian refugees was stipulated by security considerations. The terrorist acts committed in Russia by the Ukrainian special services could well have pushed the Georgian authorities to such a decision. There are several Ukrainian humanitarian and non-governmental organizations operating in Georgia, and it is not at all impossible that they might do undercover work. In addition, Ukrainian refugees, who are sympathetic to the pro-Ukrainian agenda of the Georgian opposition, often participate in anti-government street protests.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, complications in relations between Kyiv and Tbilisi have been steadily ascending. GD continuously claims that the West and Kyiv want to involve Georgia in the war with Russia to ease a war-burden for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s statement sharply reacted the statement by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, called the Ukrainian government appointed “from the outside” and claimed that Georgian authorities will not allow either “Ukrainization” of Georgia, or the scenario of Ukrainian “Maidan.” Such kind of statements extremely irritates Kyiv.
Among other conditions, such as abruption of economic ties with Russia, the Ukrainian side links the normalization of relations with Georgia to the release of the imprisoned former president of Georgia and now citizen of Ukraine, Mikhail Saakashvili. That is a priori impossible given the domestic political realities in Georgia. Besides, Ukrainian officials periodically have been charging Georgian authorities of helping Russia with dodging Western sanctions through the territory of Georgia. The Ukrainian side, however, did not submit publicly any hard evidence corroborating their accusations. The counter demands of Tbilisi to Kyiv for the extradition of the wanted officials of the former ruling party – the United National Movement (END) who found political shelter in Ukraine and received senior positions in the Ukrainian state agencies, are still ignored by Ukrainian authorities.
GD leadership and State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) repeatedly pointed the finger at the Ukrainian special services for their alleged involvement in the attempts of the Georgian opposition groups to topple the government, including infiltration Saakashvili into Georgia in 2021 on the eve of local government elections. They also ascribed to the Ukrainian special services a plot to overthrow GD government and assassinate Ivanishvili. SSG also accused Georgian war volunteers, especially Georgian Legion, fighting on the side of Ukraine of their intention to come to Georgia and support opposition protests by forcible actions. The Legion’s command turns down the allegations.
For quite understandable reasons, in its relations with Georgia, the war-affected Ukrainian side emphasizes a lack of Georgian solidarity, and often hints that Georgian people are better than their government when it comes to support for Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian political establishment and expert community don’t have recipes for healing a crisis in Georgia-Ukraine relations, they recommend that the Georgian government refrain, at the very least, from divisive rhetoric regarding Ukrainian developments. However, it appears to be a difficult task reckoning with current and past events in the bilateral relations. Along with the current Georgian-Ukrainian verbal war, many in Georgia still remember that after the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, Ukraine refused to vote for a resolution on the recognition of hostilities in Georgia as an aggression by Russia. The Georgian public also remembers how, before entering politics, Volodimir Zelensky literally mocked Georgia and its then leadership in his shows, effectively justifying the Russian aggression. Currently, the embassies of Ukraine and Georgia in Tbilisi and Kyiv are operating without ambassadors – yet another indicator of a deep crisis in bilateral relations, that began immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The current crisis in Georgian-Ukrainian relations is largely a reflection of c complicated geopolitical context in the region. The prospects for this relations depend heavily on the security architecture that major international players are trying to build. Thus, the nature of Georgian- Ukrainian relations will be largely determined by the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The likelihood of normalization of Georgian-Ukrainian relations, not to mention their improvement, is very low. Both sides may be said to have done much to pile up the mutual claims and barriers that will be difficult to overcome in the foreseeable future. The parties’ positions on the burning issues of bilateral relations as well as their different attitudes towards the relations with Russia, represent a significant obstacle for normalization of relations. At this stage the exhaustion of resources of a productive and result-oriented bilateral dialogue is apparent. However, if political forces with a more pro-Ukrainian stance close to Western approaches come to power in Georgia, there is a chance that status quo may change. In this regard, much depends on the results of the expected presidential and parliamentary election in Ukraine itself.
