After Gaza, Is Lebanon Next? – OpEd
In the aftermath of its brutal military campaign in Gaza, Israel is now shifting its gaze northward towards Lebanon, a move that raises alarming questions about its regional intentions. Is Lebanon the next Gaza? For many analysts, human rights advocates, and regional watchers, the answer increasingly appears to be yes. The trajectory of Israeli military rhetoric, cross-border strikes, and political justification echoes the same patterns that led to the devastation of Gaza. As the world watches, a dangerous escalation is unfolding, one that could plunge the region into deeper conflict and civilian suffering.
The pretext for Israeli military aggression has always centered on security. In Gaza, Israel launched a months-long offensive under the justification of neutralizing Hamas after the October 7 attack. But the scale and intensity of that campaign quickly revealed a broader aim: to collectively punish an entire population. By April 2025, over 34,000 Palestinians, including more than 14,000 children, had been killed according to Gaza’s Health Ministry and verified estimates by UN OCHA. Entire neighborhoods were leveled, hospitals bombed, and critical infrastructure destroyed. More than 1.9 million people, roughly 85% of Gaza’s population, were forcibly displaced within a besieged strip that Israel had already been blockading for 17 years.
Now, a similar pattern is emerging in southern Lebanon. Since October 2023, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have steadily increased. Initially limited to sporadic exchanges of fire across the border, recent months have seen a sharp escalation. Israeli airstrikes have targeted Lebanese territory deep beyond the border, sometimes reaching as far as 30 kilometers inside Lebanon, including civilian infrastructure and residential areas. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has reported dozens of violations of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statement in March 2025 that Israel is prepared for “total war” in Lebanon eerily mirrors the rhetoric that preceded the Gaza bombardment.
The toll is already devastating. As of April 2025, over 300 Lebanese, including 72 civilians and 13 children, have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to figures from the Lebanese Ministry of Health and international humanitarian organizations. More than 75,000 people have fled southern villages, and UN agencies are warning of a looming humanitarian emergency. Strikes have hit schools, clinics, and even convoys of displaced civilians, reminiscent of the patterns seen in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli towns near the border have also been evacuated, with the Israeli government citing Hezbollah’s retaliatory attacks, yet again framing itself as the perpetual victim while executing disproportionate retaliatory force.
But Israel’s campaign in Lebanon is not just a military operation. It is a continuation of a dangerous ethno-nationalist doctrine that views any resistance, armed or civilian, as justification for collective punishment. As in Gaza, the narrative of “security” becomes a blank cheque for widespread civilian suffering. The use of advanced weapons, drone surveillance, and deliberate targeting of infrastructure is not about surgical precision; it’s about psychological warfare, deterrence through destruction, and the erasure of resistance by annihilation.
This shift is emboldened by an alarming lack of accountability. Despite repeated warnings by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and UN Human Rights Council, Israel has faced no serious consequences for its actions in Gaza. The U.S. continues to provide military aid, over $3.8 billion annually, and has even bypassed Congress in approving emergency weapons shipments during the Gaza war. Such impunity encourages repetition. When international law becomes a suggestion rather than a standard, Israel’s next target becomes not a question of if, but when.
Lebanon, already crippled by political paralysis and economic collapse, is in no position to absorb another war. The country hosts over 1.5 million Syrian and Palestinian refugees, and its healthcare system is on the brink. A full-scale Israeli campaign would not only devastate Lebanese civilians but also threaten regional spillover into Syria, Iraq, and possibly Iran. The Middle East is standing on the edge of another major explosion, fueled by Israel’s expanding war doctrine and a complicit global silence.
Meanwhile, Israeli media and political discourse have begun framing Hezbollah and Lebanon in the same language previously used to dehumanize Palestinians in Gaza. Terms like “terror state,” “Hezbollah-controlled territory,” and “no distinction between civilian and fighter” are being echoed across political speeches and newspaper editorials. This dangerous discourse paves the way for war crimes by normalizing the erasure of civilian identities, the same tactic that allowed over 60% of Gaza’s housing to be destroyed without global outrage.
But resistance to this narrative is growing. Civil society across Lebanon, Palestine, and even Israel itself is sounding the alarm. Jewish Voice for Peace, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Doctors Without Borders have all condemned Israel’s actions and warned of the devastating consequences of expanding the war. In Lebanon, grassroots relief networks are being mobilized, yet they are no match for airstrikes and displacement.
The danger of Lebanon becoming the next Gaza lies not only in military terms, but in moral and political complicity. The same world that watched Gaza burn without intervention may again bear witness to the destruction of Lebanese lives, homes, and dreams, all in the name of “self-defense.”
In reality, what we are seeing is not defense, but domination. Israel’s doctrine, fortified by impunity, backed by billions in Western arms, and shielded by a narrative of perpetual victimhood, has become a machine of unchecked aggression. Lebanon is not just in Israel’s crosshairs because of Hezbollah. It is in the path of an expansionist state determined to crush all forms of resistance, even if that means turning entire countries into rubble.
If Gaza was a warning, Lebanon may be the proof that the world failed to learn.
