Zelenskyy’s ‘U-Turns’: Ending War – OpEd

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made a number of statements and policy shifts over the course of the three-year war with Russia. Leading some to interpret his comments as a “U-turn” on his stance regarding peace talks and what does he really want? These shifts reflect the evolving nature of the conflict, changing international dynamics, and pressure both from within Ukraine and abroad.

Initial Stance – Total Resistance: At the outset of the invasion, Zelensky strongly opposed any compromises or ceasefires with Russia, emphasizing that Ukraine would fight for its territorial integrity and sovereignty. This was in line with the strong resistance from both the Ukrainian government and the population.

First Signs of Diplomacy – Early 2022: As the war continued, Zelensky appeared open to negotiations, particularly after Russia made significant advances early on. During this time, Ukraine indicated it was willing to negotiate if certain conditions were met, such as Russia withdrawing its forces from Ukrainian territories and respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. However, these offers were typically rebuffed by Russia.

Revised Approach –By late 2022, Zelensky introduced more explicit preconditions for peace talks. In his speeches, he indicated that peace talks could be possible, but only if Russia withdrew from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, and agreed to terms that upheld Ukraine’s sovereignty. He also called for war crimes accountability and proposed a “peace formula” that involved both military and diplomatic measures.

Recent U-Turns – 2023-2024: Over time, Zelensky has hinted at flexibility in some of his positions, often under pressure from Western allies, especially those that have been concerned about the prolonged nature of the conflict. These shifts have been seen as a response to the challenges Ukraine faces on the battlefield, as well as growing fatigue or political pressure from some Western nations, especially as the war drags on.

Diplomatic Flexibility: Zelensky has suggested that Ukraine could consider different diplomatic pathways if Russia showed genuine willingness to negotiate. He has reiterated the importance of international support and a clear commitment from Russia to stop its aggression. This approach indicates a possible opening to negotiations, but only under conditions that Ukraine finds acceptable—such as the withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Regional Ceasefire: There has been some indication that Zelensky might welcome ceasefires in specific regions or for humanitarian reasons, especially during winter months, when the fighting is often harder. This would likely be limited and temporary, aimed at providing relief or facilitating humanitarian aid, but not a comprehensive peace agreement.

What Zelensky Wished in a Ceasefire/Peace Deal:

• Territorial Integrity: Ukraine’s main condition for peace or a ceasefire is the full restoration of its pre-2014 borders, which includes Crimea. There is little room for compromise on this issue, as Zelensky and the Ukrainian people see the loss of these territories as unacceptable.
• Security Guarantees: Zelensky has called for security guarantees from the West, particularly from NATO or other international bodies. These guarantees would help prevent any future aggression from Russia or other hostile actors.
• Accountability and War Crimes: A major condition for peace is Russia’s accountability for war crimes, with Ukrainian authorities demanding the prosecution of Russian leaders for the atrocities committed during the invasion.
• International Support: Zelensky wants continued military and financial support from Western allies to strengthen Ukraine’s position and to ensure that any ceasefire or peace deal would not result in Ukraine being left vulnerable to future Russian attacks.

Zelensky Agrees to US Peace Deal: U-Turn

Ukrainian President Zelensky has agreed to return to the negotiating table under US mediation and was ready to sign the US ‘Rare Earth Mineral Deal’ after previously rejecting it, while also thanking President Trump for his peace efforts and calling the weekend spat in the White House “Regrettable.” This U-turn came less than 24 hours after President Trump suspended the delivery of all US military aid to Ukraine. Trump’s ‘The Art of Deal’ at its best.

“Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting Peace closer,” Zelensky said, adding that the first stages could involve large-scale prisoner swaps and immediate ceasefire, at least in the air and on the sea. 

Europe miscalculated Trump’s influence, strength and Zelensky got carried away with Europe’s unrealistic ‘Peace Formula’. One step of Trump was enough to put Zelensky back on course for a negotiated settlement and make Zelensky abandon Europe’s unrealistic approach, despite all the virtue-signaling talk of continued military aid and Western troops on the ground. The truth is that Europe does not have the strength to back up its unrealistic approach. Majority Americans are behind President Trump to end the Ukraine War early.

Ukrainian and US negotiators will have high-level talks in Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian president said that his country was “fully committed” to ‘Peace Talks’ and “Ukraine has been seeking peace from the very first second of this war. Realistic proposals are on the table”. Zelensky said that he would visit Saudi Arabia for talks with the crown prince on 10^th March but would not stay to meet representatives of the US government, instead leaving his aides for talks aimed at ending the war.

Trump’s ‘The Art of the Deal’ knack on negotiation and making bold, confident moves to get the best outcomes in business and politics has been well at play with his interactions with Zelensky President Trump has succeeded with his usual mix of flattery, strong-arming, and strategic thinking to reach a favorable deal. Trump leveraging the need of support by Zelensky possibly offering military aid and support backing in exchange for the US ‘Rare Earth Mineral Deal’ that benefits US interests is going to turn into a real business deal.

Zelensky’s “U-turns” reflect a strategic shift in response to battlefield realities, pressure from international allies, and the evolving nature of the conflict. While he remains firm on the principles of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, he has shown some flexibility in terms of how peace might be achieved, provided that certain key conditions are met. Finally, Trump’s ‘The Art of the Deal’ pressure tactics are working on Zelensky.